- rNPV
- Risk-adjusted net present value. Every future cash flow is discounted to today and weighted by the probability the asset actually reaches that point.
- PoS
- Probability of success. The chance of transitioning from one phase to the next.
- Cumulative PoS to launch
- Product of all five phase-transition probabilities: the asset's overall chance of reaching the market.
- PoS adjustment
- A multiplier on every benchmark PoS. 1.0 uses benchmarks as-is; 0.8 applies a 20% haircut for a less de-risked asset.
- Peak sales
- Eligible patients x peak penetration x net price per patient per year.
- Penetration
- Share of the eligible population captured at peak.
- Net price
- Price per patient per year, net of discounts and rebates.
- Discount rate
- Annual rate used to bring future cash flows to present value.
- Uptake / Plateau / Erosion
- The revenue curve: a linear ramp to peak, a flat plateau, then geometric decline after loss of exclusivity.