Elliot Silk
All Theses
medium-high convictionConsumer Health & Wellness InfrastructureUpdated 2025-05-25

The wellness market will continue to expand, and the infrastructure layer, not the molecules, is where durable returns are generated

Wellness is undergoing a structural shift from discretionary lifestyle spending to science-backed preventive medicine.

BLUF

The global wellness economy reached $6.8 trillion in 2024 and is growing faster than GDP, but the investable thesis is not the market's size; it is its structural migration from discretionary lifestyle spending into science-backed preventive medicine. Peptide adoption is the clearest leading indicator. GLP-1 therapies have moved peptide medicine into more than 100 million patients and normalized injectable metabolic treatment as a mass consumer product, while a large gray market for compounded wellness peptides now seeks regulatory legitimacy. The durable returns sit in the infrastructure layer, not the molecules. Telehealth and personalization platforms such as Hims and Hers, oral-delivery technology that removes the injection barrier, and the clinical-credentialing layer that converts gray-market behavior into regulated healthcare spend are defensible in ways individual compounds are not. Regulatory risk is real and active, but the direction of travel under current FDA posture favors expansion. The companies that own the rails by which validated peptide therapies reach consumers will compound with the market, while those betting on single molecules face regulatory and competitive exposure.

Connected to Thesis 1: Lab Automation & Closed-Loop Discovery and Thesis 2: Target Identification in First-in-Class Therapeutics. Automated synthesis reduces peptide manufacturing cost (Thesis 1), and rigorous target identification separates clinically-viable wellness peptides from hype-driven ones (Thesis 2).

From fringe counterculture to science-backed preventive medicine

In November 2025, Pfizer and Novo Nordisk fought a public, litigated bidding war over Metsera, a clinical-stage developer of injectable obesity peptides. Pfizer ultimately won with an offer of up to roughly $10 billion, after Novo's competing bid drew antitrust scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission and the dispute escalated to lawsuits. The episode is the clearest signal available that peptide assets have become strategically essential rather than speculative; when two of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world escalate to litigation over a single clinical-stage peptide biotech, the category has moved from emerging to core. Pfizer's motivation underscores the point, since the acquisition followed the failure of its own internal oral GLP-1 program and represented its re-entry into the obesity market through acquired peptide science. This is the macro backdrop against which the wellness and peptide thesis sits; the molecules are now proven enough that incumbents will pay billions to own them, which makes the durable investment question one of infrastructure and access rather than discovery.

Pre-1970sWellness as fringe counterculture

Vitamins, herbal remedies, and alternative medicine existed on the cultural margins. Mainstream medicine was reactive and hospital-centric. Preventive health had no consumer market; it was a public health concept, not a product category.

1970s–1980sThe fitness revolution and vitamin industry emerge

Jane Fonda aerobics, gym culture, and the first wave of vitamin/supplement commercialization. Consumers began treating their bodies as systems to optimize, not just problems to fix. The supplement industry, now hundreds of billions of dollars in size, traces its modern roots here.

1990sDSHEA 1994 — supplements deregulated in the US

The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA) created a light-touch regulatory framework for supplements, with no FDA pre-market approval required. This single legislation unlocked a multi-hundred billion dollar industry by removing the primary barrier to commercialization.

2000sDirect-to-consumer health goes online

The internet enabled consumers to research their own health, buy supplements directly, and access information previously gated behind medical professionals. This laid the DTC infrastructure that telehealth companies would later exploit.

2012The biohacking movement goes mainstream

Dave Asprey's Bulletproof Coffee, Tim Ferriss's 4-Hour Body, and the Quantified Self movement brought performance optimization language into mainstream consumer culture. Peptides, continuous glucose monitors, and targeted supplementation moved from elite athletes to tech professionals.

2017–2021GLP-1s approved for diabetes, then obesity

Ozempic approved for diabetes (2017). Wegovy approved for obesity (2021). These approvals normalized the idea that peptide injections could be a consumer health product, not just a hospital drug, and validated that a large, underserved market existed for pharmacological weight and metabolic management.

2021–2023Telehealth wellness platforms scale

Hims & Hers, Ro, Alto Pharmacy, and others built DTC telehealth infrastructure connecting consumers to personalized medications, first for hair loss and sexual health, then for weight loss and metabolic health. The combination of telehealth + compounding pharmacy became a distribution moat.

2023FDA restricts gray-market peptides; gray market grows anyway

The FDA placed BPC-157, thymosin beta-4, and other consumer peptides on its restricted compounding list due to safety concerns and lack of human clinical data. The gray market grew regardless, driven by telehealth platforms, social media influencers, and international suppliers, creating a massive, unregulated consumer behavior that is now seeking regulatory legitimacy.

2025–2026Regulatory pivot: RFK Jr. moves to legalize compounded peptides

HHS Secretary RFK Jr. announced efforts to reverse FDA restrictions on injectable peptides, citing the existing gray market and his personal use. FDA advisory committee review scheduled for July 2026 for 17 previously restricted peptides. If passed, this converts a gray market into a regulated, scalable consumer market overnight.

foundationalmajorincrementalcurrent

The numbers behind the bottleneck

$6.8T

Global wellness economy (2024)

Global Wellness Institute, Nov 2025

7.6%

Wellness economy CAGR through 2029

Global Wellness Institute, Nov 2025

12.77%

US retail peptide market CAGR 2025–2033

Grand View Research, Nov 2025

$85B

Longevity / anti-aging market (2025)

Allied Market Research / Grand View Research composite, 2025

+49%

Hims & Hers Q3 2025 revenue (YoY growth)

Hims & Hers SEC 8-K, Nov 2025

The wellness economy's scale is real, but most of its $6.8 trillion is not addressable by early-stage venture investment, since it spans real estate, tourism, and traditional medicine. The investable thesis narrows to the layer where consumer wellness is converting into recurring, science-backed healthcare spend. GLP-1 adoption is the engine of that conversion; injectable peptide therapy has reached more than 100 million patients and pulled millions into medical wellness channels, creating durable demand for the platforms that deliver, personalize, and credential these treatments.

The defensible positions are infrastructure rather than molecules. Telehealth and personalization platforms aggregate the consumer relationship and the data layer; oral-delivery technology addresses the single largest barrier to peptide adoption; and clinical-credentialing models convert gray-market behavior into regulated, reimbursable medicine. Each of these compounds with the market regardless of which specific peptide wins, whereas a single-molecule bet carries concentrated regulatory and competitive risk. The regulatory environment is in active flux and currently skewing toward expanded access, which raises the value of the distribution and delivery rails through which legitimized peptides will flow.

Regulatory Watch

The FDA calendar that moves this thesis

2023FDA places BPC-157, TB-500, and others on restricted compounding list (Category 2)
negativepast
Feb 2025FDA ends semaglutide shortage exception — compounded GLP-1s largely banned
negativepast
Jan 2026Wegovy oral pill (semaglutide tablet) launches in US
positivepast
Apr 2026RFK Jr. announces intention to reverse peptide restrictions; FDA review initiated for 17 peptides
positiverecent
Jul 2026FDA advisory committee scheduled to review whether compounding pharmacies can produce restricted peptides
positiveupcoming
Early 2027FDA review of five additional peptides expected to complete
positiveupcoming
pastrecentupcoming

Wellness and peptide infrastructure: the defensible stack

Hover any company for funding stage and description.

GLP-1 Incumbentslarge-cap context
Novo NordiskEli LillyPfizer
Delivery & Formulation
Entera Bio★Kailera Therapeutics
Telehealth & Distribution
Hims & Hers★RoLillyDirect
Longevity Clinics
Fountain LifeFunction HealthLevels
GLP-1 incumbents (large-cap context)Delivery & formulationTelehealth & distributionLongevity clinics

Deep Dives

Hims and Hers is the clearest public-market expression of the infrastructure thesis. It is not a pharmacy but a personalization and distribution platform; its moat is the direct consumer relationship, the data layer that matches patients to treatments, and the telehealth rails that deliver them. The financials confirm scale, with full-year 2025 revenue of roughly $2.35 billion, up 59% year over year, $318 million in adjusted EBITDA, and more than 2.5 million subscribers. The strategic logic is that the specific molecules dispensed, whether GLP-1s, generics, or future peptides, are interchangeable, while the platform that routes them to consumers is not. The company has expanded into at-home lab testing and personalized treatment plans, deepening the data advantage. The principal risk is regulatory and is live; the FDA's decision to end the semaglutide shortage exception in early 2025 threatened a major compounded-GLP-1 revenue stream, and the business operates in an environment that can shift quarter to quarter. For the thesis, Hims and Hers demonstrates that owning the distribution and personalization layer, rather than any single therapy, produces a scalable and defensible business as peptide medicine moves into mass consumer adoption.

Kailera Therapeutics is the venture-stage embodiment of the bet that the GLP-1 market is a floor rather than a ceiling. Founded in 2024, the company in-licensed a portfolio of metabolic assets from Hengrui and has raised more than $1 billion, including a $600 million Series B led by Bain Capital Private Equity in October 2025, a rare sum for a clinical-stage company. Its lead asset, KAI-9531, an injectable GLP-1/GIP dual agonist also known as ribupatide, entered a global Phase 3 program with potentially best-in-category weight loss, and the pipeline includes an oral GLP-1 and an injectable tri-agonist. The contrast with Novo Nordisk is the instructive part of the thesis. Novo built its franchise through decades of vertically integrated, internal peptide discovery that produced semaglutide, whereas Kailera is a capital-and-licensing model that acquires de-risked assets and races them through late-stage trials against the incumbents. The Metsera bidding war, in which Pfizer paid up to roughly $10 billion for a clinical-stage peptide developer, demonstrates the scale of incumbent appetite for exactly the next-generation obesity assets Kailera is advancing. The risk is that next-generation obesity drugs must demonstrate meaningful superiority over tirzepatide, an already highly effective benchmark.

Entera Bio addresses the single largest technical barrier to peptide adoption, which is that peptides are destroyed in the digestive tract and therefore typically require injection. Entera develops oral formulation technology designed to deliver peptides that are currently injectable-only, and in 2025 it partnered with OPKO Health to develop an oral GLP-1 and glucagon tablet for obesity. The strategic significance is leverage; oral delivery does not compete with the molecule developers, it enables all of them, which positions a successful platform to be licensed across the industry rather than tied to a single asset. Every major obesity player is racing toward oral formulations precisely because removing the injection barrier expands the addressable population by orders of magnitude. That is the infrastructure logic of the thesis applied to a hard chemistry problem. The risk is equally clear; oral bioavailability of peptides remains scientifically difficult, clinical success is far from guaranteed, and the OPKO partnership, while validating, is early. For the thesis, Entera represents the highest-leverage technical bet in the category, distinct from the distribution and clinical-service plays, because the company that solves oral peptide delivery captures value from the entire peptide market rather than any single therapy.

Fountain Life represents the model that converts wellness behavior into physician-supervised, evidence-based medicine. It operates a network of high-end longevity clinics offering whole-body MRI, AI-driven diagnostics, and personalized longevity protocols, sitting at the premium, diagnostic-first end of the wellness infrastructure thesis. The strategic argument is that as longevity and preventive medicine accumulate clinical evidence and, eventually, reimbursement pathways, the credentialing layer that pairs diagnostics with supervised intervention becomes the bridge from unregulated biohacking to legitimate healthcare. GLP-1 adoption strengthens this model directly, since the normalization of medical weight management has pulled millions of consumers into clinical wellness settings, creating a cross-selling opportunity for adjacent longevity services. The clear limitation is scalability; the current model is high cost and serves affluent consumers, and reimbursement remains the binding constraint on reaching a mainstream population. For the thesis, Fountain Life is the smallest-scale and most speculative of the four deep dives, included because it represents the clinical-credentialing function that, if longevity medicine achieves reimbursement, becomes a structurally valuable layer. It is the clearest illustration of wellness migrating into the formal healthcare stack rather than remaining in the supplement aisle.

Gray-market peptide regulatory risk
critical · Regulatory — live risk

The consumer peptide ecosystem is largely gray-market. BPC-157, TB-500, CJC-1295, and other popular wellness peptides lack FDA approval for human use. The FDA restricted compounding of several in 2023. A crackdown would materially disrupt telehealth platforms and compounding pharmacies that currently distribute these products. RFK Jr.'s deregulation push may mitigate this — or be reversed.

Any investment in the consumer peptide distribution layer carries binary regulatory risk. Favor platform companies over molecule-specific plays.

Wellness market is diffuse — most of it is not investable at early stage
critical · Market structure problem

The $6.8T wellness economy includes real estate, tourism, traditional medicine, and workplace wellness. Only a small fraction is addressable by early-stage venture investment. The thesis must specify exactly which layer of the stack is investable: delivery infrastructure, diagnostics, formulation technology, or clinical services.

Macro wellness numbers are impressive but do not validate a specific investment. The investable thesis must be specific about the layer — platform, molecule, delivery, diagnostics.

GLP-1 may cannibalize adjacent wellness spend
significant · Market dynamic risk

If semaglutide and tirzepatide effectively address weight, metabolic health, and cardiovascular risk in 100M+ patients, they may reduce demand for adjacent wellness products — supplements, fitness services, dietary programs. The Ozempic Effect has already been cited as a headwind for food and supplement companies.

The direction of the GLP-1 effect on adjacent wellness is ambiguous. It clearly expands the market for longevity clinics and diagnostic services. Its effect on supplement and fitness spend is negative or unclear.

Clinical evidence gap for most consumer peptides
significant · Science risk

BPC-157, TB-500, CJC-1295, and most consumer wellness peptides lack rigorous Phase II/III human clinical trial data. Their use is driven by anecdote, social media, and extrapolation from animal studies. This is precisely the gap that regulatory review could close — or that could expose the entire category as scientifically unsupported.

Clinical credentialing of consumer peptides is the key catalyst. Companies conducting human studies on previously unproven peptides are creating the evidence base that converts gray market into regulated market.

Oral peptide delivery remains unsolved at scale
moderate · Technical challenge

Peptides are destroyed by digestive enzymes before reaching systemic circulation. This is why GLP-1s are injectable. Oral formulation (Wegovy pill, Entera Bio's platform) is the single biggest technical unlock remaining. It would massively expand the addressable population for peptide therapies.

Oral delivery technology is a platform bet — whoever solves it gets licensed by the entire peptide industry. This is a high-risk, high-reward technical bet distinct from the infrastructure plays.

“The wellness market is too broad and diffuse to generate focused VC returns.”

strengthens

Correct as a general observation, and exactly why the thesis is focused on the infrastructure layer, not the market as a whole. Telehealth platforms, diagnostic companies, and oral delivery technology companies are specific, bounded bets within the wellness macro. The broad market provides the tailwind; the specific layer is the investment.

“GLP-1s will absorb most of the market growth and advantage only Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.”

complementary

GLP-1s are the proof case, not the ceiling. They demonstrated that peptide-based metabolic medicine can reach 100M+ consumers. The next wave — oral formulations, dual/triple agonists, peptides for longevity and cognitive health — is being built now. Kailera's $600M Series B is evidence the market believes this. Novo and Lilly benefit, but so does anyone building on top of the infrastructure they created.

“Regulatory risk makes consumer peptide investments uninvestable.”

monitor

The regulatory environment is in active flux and skewing toward expansion, not restriction. RFK Jr.'s moves to legalize compounded peptides, the FDA's July 2026 advisory committee review, and the political difficulty of restricting a product already used by tens of millions of Americans all point toward an expanding regulated market. The risk is real but the direction of travel is favorable.

“Wellness is a lifestyle category, not a healthcare category — it will not sustain institutional VC returns.”

strengthens

The thesis is premised on exactly the opposite of this claim: wellness is undergoing a structural shift from lifestyle spending to science-backed preventive medicine. The clinical infrastructure being built — physician-supervised protocols, diagnostic biomarkers, outcome tracking — is healthcare infrastructure, not wellness retail. The category is migrating into the healthcare stack, not staying in the supplement aisle.

“Consumers will stop paying for wellness products when the economy contracts.”

complementary

Historical data suggests otherwise. The wellness economy grew through the 2008 financial crisis and through COVID. The demographic tailwinds — aging populations, chronic disease burden, preventive mindset — are structural, not cyclical. High-ticket longevity clinics may be discretionary; GLP-1 prescriptions for metabolic disease are not.

“
The wellness market has doubled since 2013 and grew 7.9% from 2023 to 2024. Because the trends fueling the wellness industry will only accelerate — an aging population, rampant chronic disease, and a market newly focused on prevention and longevity — we predict the industry will grow at an even faster pace through 2029.
“
The normalization of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has brought millions of patients into medical wellness clinics, creating a massive cross-selling opportunity for other longevity services.
“
Compounding pharmacies are being hammered by patients and prescribers to prepare these peptide drugs, and legally, they can't do it. Not yet, anyway. And that is stimulating the illicit, non-pharmacy actors in the gray market.
Scott Brunner, Alliance for Pharmacy Compounding·Washington Post / US News, January 2025
“
Health Secretary RFK Jr., a self-proclaimed big fan of peptides, appears poised to take steps that will fuel the peptide craze rather than rein it in.